U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 200016 
Storm Prediction Center ac 200014 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0714 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 

Valid 200100z - 201200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from far 
southern New Mexico into far West Texas... 

Isolated marginally severe hail and wind gusts remain possible over 
the next couple hours over far southern New Mexico into far West 

..southern nm into far West Texas... 
Scattered storms are currently ongoing across southern nm, where 
peak heating has been achieved and beneath cool temperature profiles 
aloft. Storms have been producing outflow, which continues to surge 
southward toward the Texas border. Per latest radar, a few storms have 
shown the potential for localized marginally severe hail. Other 
cells may continue to form over northern Chihuahua, with an eventual 
merging of outflows into Texas. Thus, for a few more hours, a marginal 
wind/hail threat remains. 

.Jewell.. 10/20/2017 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 192021 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 192020 

Mesoscale discussion 1720 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0320 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017 

Areas affected...southwest New Mexico into a portion of far western 

Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

Valid 192020z - 192245z 

Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 

Summary...stronger storms will remain capable of producing a few 
instances of downburst winds and hail through early evening. Overall 
threat is marginal, and coverage of severe events is not expected to 
become sufficient for a ww. 

Discussion...surface temperatures have climbed to near 80f with 
dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s in the presence of boundary-layer 
mixing, boosting MLCAPE to 400-800 j/kg. Storms over southern nm 
have increased in overall intensity during the last hour, and 
further increase in coverage may occur as forcing for ascent 
attendant to a progressive shortwave trough over Arizona spreads into 
western nm. No substantial increase in winds aloft is expected with 
the approach of the impulse, and vertical shear will remain weak and 
supportive of multicells. Nevertheless, the thermodynamic 
environment with steep lapse rates and inverted-v boundary layers 
will continue to promote a risk for a few instances of downburst 
winds and hail through early evening. 

.Dial.. 10/19/2017 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 31800602 31970707 32370817 33530845 33830682 33460584 
32500539 31800602